Dr. Ezzatollah Reisi Ardakani, the father of hydrogeology in Iran, provided explanations regarding the status of autumn rainfall and the impact of the El Niño phenomenon on it. He noted that long-term meteorological predictions are not highly certain, and one cannot definitively comment on the occurrence of heavy rainfall based on them.
El Niño and Its Effects on Rainfall
Reisi Ardakani referred to the occurrence of the "super El Niño" and the possibility of heavy rainfall this autumn, stating that the increase in temperature in the eastern Pacific Ocean does not necessarily mean widespread changes across the globe. He emphasized that the effects of this phenomenon will primarily be felt in the eastern Pacific region and may alter wind circulation patterns. For instance, heavy rainfall is expected in some areas like Peru and Ecuador, while other regions such as Australia may face drought.
Timing of Rainfall in Iran
This water expert mentioned his prediction regarding the timing of increased rainfall in Iran, saying: "It is expected that atmospheric changes and increased rainfall will become evident from late October or early November." He added that this year's autumn rainfall will start earlier than last year, which could be good news for the country.
Reisi Ardakani also emphasized that rainfall will initially strengthen in the western and southwestern regions of the country, and weather systems typically enter from the Mediterranean. He hopes that these systems will gradually expand eastward and affect the central regions of the country, including Tehran.
This water researcher also referred to the potential impact of another teleconnection pattern called "QBO" on winter weather conditions, stating that if favorable conditions occur, it may allow the intrusion of cold air masses towards Iran.
In conclusion, Reisi Ardakani expressed hope for suitable rainfall in autumn and urged the meteorological organization to conduct thorough investigations and analyses of atmospheric instabilities to provide more accurate predictions of point rainfall and heavy showers.
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