Iran's missile capability and the increase in attacks on oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz have had profound effects on Donald Trump's calculations in the war with Iran. Recent reports indicate that contrary to the U.S. government's claims of destroying Iran's military capability, the country has maintained its capacity to produce missiles and drones.
U.S. Government Claims and Ground Realities
Bloomberg reported, citing Western officials, that Iran has managed to maintain part of its weapons production capacity while under pressure from U.S. and Israeli airstrikes. These officials emphasize that Tehran is still capable of rebuilding its arsenal and taking advantage of the pause in U.S. attacks.
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This assessment contradicts the repeated statements of Donald Trump and U.S. Secretary of Defense Mark Esper, who claim to have destroyed Iran's military capability. According to Western officials, Iran still possesses significant stockpiles of ballistic missiles and anti-ship weapons and can quickly increase their numbers.
Developments in the Strait of Hormuz and Their Consequences
The Wall Street Journal has reported that Iran and the Houthis in Yemen are increasing attacks on oil tankers and targets in Saudi Arabia in an effort to regain the initiative in the war with the U.S. Just a few days ago, it seemed that Iran was under severe pressure, but the new attacks indicate that Iran and its allies are still capable of disrupting shipping and energy exports in the Persian Gulf.
Attacks on oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz have raised concerns about the security of one of the world's most important energy transit routes. Statistics show that the number of attacks on oil tankers in the week ending October 4 reached the highest weekly level since the beginning of the war. This increase occurred while the U.S. was using its military capability to protect shipping routes and trying to normalize oil exports from Gulf countries.
However, the continuation of attacks by Iran and the Houthis indicates that even during a relative pause in U.S. military operations, the risk of escalation remains. These attacks could impact global oil prices and increase insurance costs for oil tankers and maritime transportation rates.
The Trump administration has reached an agreement with Vladimir Putin to increase the supply of Russian diesel to the global market to curb rising fuel prices ahead of the U.S. midterm elections. This agreement, coming as the average price of diesel in the U.S. has reached about six dollars and 28 cents per gallon, could exacerbate Trump's economic and political troubles.
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