Brent crude oil prices, which expire in December, rose by 2.2% to $113.25 per barrel, while the futures price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil also increased by 0.9% to $102.93 per barrel. This price increase occurs as both contracts have grown by 15.5% and 13.9% respectively in October.
Factors affecting oil prices
Dennis Kessler, Senior Vice President of Trading at BOK Financial, stated that traders are focused on the flow of oil exports from the Middle East and the potential escalation of tensions from American forces and their allies. In particular, the consequences of the military aggression by the United States and the Israeli regime against Iran, which began on February 28, continue, and companies are trying to adapt to the disruptions caused in commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
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In this context, the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) reported on Friday that a security incident occurred involving an oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz, which could exacerbate existing concerns. These events have significantly impacted oil prices, and forecasts indicate that prices may become even more volatile in the near future.
Economic forecasts and election impacts
According to a report from Saxo Bank on Thursday, oil prices may become more volatile due to the recent Israeli regime elections and the U.S. midterm elections on November 3. This Danish bank predicts that crude oil prices will trade at a higher range between $70 and $90 per barrel even after tensions subside, compared to the previous range of $60 to $70.
Meanwhile, according to a Reuters report, the number of U.S. oil rigs, which indicates future production, has increased by two. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that crude oil production in the country rose in August, while demand for crude oil and petroleum products has decreased.
Disruptions in Libyan oil production
The National Oil Corporation of Libya also announced that an armed group closed the main oil pipeline valve at Hamada, which connects the Hamada field to the Zawiya refinery, on Friday. This closure has halted the flow of about 15,000 barrels per day, and this situation could impact prices and global oil supply.
These factors indicate that not only tensions in the Middle East but also internal developments in countries and elections can have profound effects on the oil market and its global prices.
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