The Donald Trump administration may decide to resume a major war against Iran following the U.S. midterm elections on November 3. Although Trump had refrained from starting a war before the elections, he may fear the consequences of such an action less after the elections.
A Battle to Reduce Costs
Trump, facing widespread voter anger due to rising energy prices and economic troubles, may seek to achieve his political goals through this means. But could a new airstrike bring him closer to an agreement he could use to declare victory? The likelihood of that is very low.
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Some Pentagon officials believe that a severe, multi-day attack on Iran could force the country to accept new agreements. However, this is the same mistake that led the United States into a meaningless war, as Trump previously believed that the Iranian regime would collapse with a surprise attack.
Qatar's Diplomatic Efforts
Last week, Qatari negotiators held several rounds of talks with Iranian officials to prevent a new round of war. These negotiations led to progress regarding a temporary agreement, especially since Iranian officials have suggested that if the blockade of Iran's ports is lifted and billions of dollars in frozen assets are released, they would reopen the Strait of Hormuz within two days.
The temporary agreement reached in June for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz failed, and other negotiations have also been delayed for months. Deep mistrust between the United States and Iran has complicated the situation. Trump's repeated threats of "destruction" of Iran exacerbate this mistrust.
Meanwhile, if the Republicans suffer a heavy defeat in the midterm elections, Trump may launch a major attack on Iran out of a sense of vengeance, targeting not only nuclear facilities but also the civilian infrastructure of the country. Such actions could lead to further devastation of Iran's economy and may be considered war crimes under international law.
In the coming days, it will become clear whether Trump is able to move towards an agreement with Iran instead of seeking revenge, or if he will repeat the mistakes of the past.
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