Saudi Arabia is preparing to launch a military operation against Yemen's Ansar Allah. The goal of this operation is to reclaim coastal areas and remove the Bab al-Mandab Strait from the control of the Ansar Allah group. Regional and Western sources have reported that this operation may begin in the coming weeks, with Yemeni forces supported by Riyadh at the forefront.
Reviewing Military Options
Reports indicate that Saudi Arabia is considering two options for this operation: a limited attack on areas around Bab al-Mandab or a broader operation on multiple fronts simultaneously, including the provinces of Al-Bayda, Marib, Taiz, and Al-Jawf. If the extensive plan is executed, it is expected that over 100,000 Yemeni forces will be mobilized for this operation.
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Strategic Importance of Bab al-Mandab
The Bab al-Mandab Strait, as the southern gateway to the Red Sea, is one of the vital shipping routes between the Mediterranean and Asia. With increasing disruptions in traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, the importance of this waterway has significantly risen. Arab sources and Western diplomats believe that Riyadh has concluded that as long as Ansar Allah controls this strait, entering new peace negotiations with this group will be difficult.
The exact timing of the operation's start is still unclear, but informed sources estimate it could begin from a week ahead to after the U.S. midterm elections in early November. Michael Ratney, former U.S. ambassador to Saudi Arabia, expects that the potential operation will be more limited than Saudi Arabia's extensive operation in 2015.
The U.S. is currently providing the necessary information to support Saudi operations in Yemen and American military advisors are also assisting in this regard. However, Saudi Arabia's allies apparently do not intend to participate directly in combat operations inside Yemen.
One of Saudi Arabia's main concerns if a new operation begins is the protection of its oil facilities and infrastructure against drone and missile attacks from Ansar Allah. Regional sources have also reported that Riyadh has requested assistance from several of its allies to strengthen defensive systems.
Mohammad al-Basha, a Yemen analyst, pointed to the state of Yemeni forces opposing Ansar Allah and stated that many of these forces are still not organized or prepared for a long-term operation against Ansar Allah.
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