Sahar Tajbakhsh, the head of the National Meteorological Organization, mentioned in a meeting about the production leap plan in rain-fed agriculture attended by the Minister of Agriculture, the Minister of Energy, and the head of the Executive Headquarters of Imam Khomeini, that one of the strongest El Niño phenomena is occurring this year.
Temperature Increase and Rainfall Forecast
Tajbakhsh explained that when the sea surface temperature of the Pacific Ocean increases significantly (more than 2 degrees Celsius) compared to long-term averages, we face El Niño, super El Niño, and very strong phenomena. She added: "Data from the last two weeks indicates a remarkable increase in temperature, and it is expected that this trend will continue in the month of Bahman as well."
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Change in Rainfall Patterns and Preparedness for Crisis
The head of the National Meteorological Organization emphasized that the rainfall patterns in the country have changed and are moving towards very heavy and torrential rains, noting that autumn rains occur as very heavy downpours in specific areas instead of widespread distribution. She referred to a concrete example, stating: "In Khoy County, approximately 38 millimeters of rainfall was recorded in just 40 minutes, leading to severe flooding and unfortunately human casualties."
Tajbakhsh also predicted that the rainfall from mid-Aban to early Azar will provide the main coverage of the water year’s rainfall. She added that in winter, snowfall may occur in a slanted and mixed (liquid precipitation) form instead of a powdery and widespread state, which could reduce the country's snow reserves.
In conclusion, Sahar Tajbakhsh emphasized the complete readiness of executive agencies and stated: "It is essential for crisis management organizations and executive agencies to be fully prepared to deal with severe and sudden weather events, and coordination among the Ministry of Energy, the Environmental Protection Organization, and other institutions for water resource management in the face of these climatic changes should be increased."
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