The results of the 2026 midterm elections in the U.S., especially the decisive victory of the Democratic Party, could have profound and far-reaching consequences for foreign policies and particularly the Iran war. With the Democrats taking control of both houses of Congress, questions have arisen regarding the sustainability of the Iran war and its impact on America's political future.
History Repeats Itself?
In 2006, when George W. Bush faced declining support and an unpopular war in the Middle East during his second term, the Republican Party suffered a decisive defeat in the midterm elections. At that time, President Bush was forced to dismiss his Secretary of Defense, Donald Rumsfeld. Now, 20 years later, the Democrats are responding to the question of whether the decisive defeat of a Republican president entangled in a Middle Eastern war will lead to the removal of the war-hawk faction.
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In the recent elections, the Democrats not only succeeded in many competitive seats but even achieved victories in conservative states like South Carolina. These unexpected results reflect the deep dissatisfaction of the public with Republican policies, especially on economic and social issues.
Factors Behind Trump's Defeat
Trump's historic defeat in the recent elections, particularly regarding the Iran war, is clearly evident. Polls indicate that Trump's popularity had reached its lowest point before the elections, and many Americans oppose the Iran war. This war has not only led to rising fuel prices in the U.S. but has also called into question Trump's campaign promises to end perpetual wars.
On the other hand, corruption in Trump's war policies has intensified public dissatisfaction. Evidence of large bets on betting sites and suspicious transactions in the stock market indicates the depth of corruption in this area. Media attacks on war events, including the attack on the Shajareh Tayebeh school in Minab, have also contributed to the decline in public support for the war.
Moreover, it should be noted that the Democratic Congress has limited legal ability to restrict Trump's wars. The extensive powers granted to the president after September 11 allow for any military action without sufficient oversight and control. This issue will affect the future of the Iran war.
Future Scenarios for the Iran War
In this context, two scenarios for the future of the Iran war are proposed. The first scenario is one of revenge, where Trump may launch a large-scale attack on Iran due to his electoral defeat. In the second scenario, Trump may learn a lesson and refrain from continuing the war. This election could serve as a wake-up call for Republicans and exempt them from continuing the war and conflict.
Ultimately, although the outcome of the 2026 elections will directly impact the future of the Iran war, the Democrats' inability to limit the president's powers could lead to increased tensions. In the meantime, only time will tell whether the Iran war will come to an end or if tensions will continue.
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