The exchange rate of the dollar has reached 172,000 tomans, and the upward trend of this rate continues daily. Simultaneously, the dollar rate in the free market has also been rising and is currently trading at around 240,000 tomans; this situation has created a significant gap between the exchange rate and the free market rate.
Price Difference of the Dollar and Its Impact on Essential Goods
According to these figures, the price difference between the dollar in the free market and the Central Bank's exchange rate is about 68,000 tomans per dollar. Thus, the free dollar rate is approximately 39.5% higher than the exchange rate of 172,000 tomans. This gap has arisen while the exchange rate has also been on an upward trend in recent months, increasing the cost of securing currency for importing goods, including essential items.
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Adjustment of Voucher Credibility as a Solution to Maintain Purchasing Power
At the beginning of the year, after the removal of the preferential exchange rate of 28,500 tomans, the basis for the government's supportive calculations for securing essential goods (voucher credibility) changed to about 110,000 tomans per dollar. Now, the exchange rate of the dollar has risen from 110,000 tomans to 172,000 tomans. Therefore, the exchange rate for securing currency for importing essential goods has increased by about 56.4% compared to the beginning of the year.
If the one million toman voucher credibility is adjusted according to this increase in the exchange rate, the credibility for each individual should reach about 1,564,000 tomans; that is, an increase of about 564,000 tomans compared to the initial one million toman credibility. This calculation is based solely on the change in the exchange rate, and to accurately estimate its effect on the cost of the basket of essential goods, the share of currency in the final price of goods, changes in global prices, transportation costs, and other cost components must also be considered.
However, the 56% increase in the exchange rate from 110,000 to 172,000 tomans indicates that if the initial purchasing power of the voucher is to be maintained, its nominal credibility cannot provide the same coverage for the basket of essential goods without revision. Accordingly, assuming a complete adjustment according to the exchange rate, the one million toman credibility should increase to about 1.56 million tomans for each person.
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