New meteorological warnings indicate that today, Monday, October 19, 2026, short and intense rainfall is predicted in the southern regions of Iran. Humidity and convective instability in the provinces of Hormozgan, Kerman, and Sistan and Baluchestan may lead to heavy showers and thunderstorms.
High-Risk Areas in the South
The Meteorological Organization has issued an orange alert for the northern and eastern parts of Hormozgan, southern Kerman, and southern Sistan and Baluchestan. In these areas, relatively heavy showers, temporary winds, and the possibility of hail are expected. Due to the localized nature of convective rainfall, there are risks such as flooding and the overflow of seasonal rivers.
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In Hormozgan, especially in the northern and eastern regions, conditions are favorable for heavier rainfall. Also, in the southern half of Kerman and southern Sistan and Baluchestan, showers and thunderstorms are likely during the active hours of the system.
Scattered Rainfall in Other Regions
In the central and Zagros regions, the provinces of Isfahan, Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari, Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad, northern Fars, and western Yazd are also exposed to instability. Rainfall in these areas may be more concentrated in the southern half of Isfahan and also in the heights of Zagros. In other areas, such as Gilan and Mazandaran, scattered rainfall is predicted.
Citizens in the southern slopes of Alborz, the heights of Tehran, Alborz, and Semnan should also be prepared for increased cloudiness and scattered rainfall. However, rainfall in Tehran will mainly be of a mountainous nature and does not imply widespread precipitation in the city.
Considering the convective characteristics of the system, even if the average rainfall in an area is not very high, the momentary intensity of rainfall can cause problems for seasonal streams and rivers. Therefore, the orange alert in the southern part of the country is more significant in terms of risks.
In other provinces, from Ilam and Kermanshah to Qom and Qazvin, widespread rainfall is not predicted, and the weather conditions may vary from clear skies to increased cloudiness and wind. In Yazd, the western part of the province is under instability.
Finally, forecasts indicate that from Tuesday, October 20, the range of rainfall will expand to more parts of the country.
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