The population forecast of Iran until the horizon of 1430 indicates that fertility is one of the key variables in shaping the country's demographic future. Data provided for the years 1396 to 1400 shows a decrease in the total fertility rate from 2.09 to 1.74 children; a trend that presents different scenarios for population forecasting, ranging from a continued decline in fertility to an increase to the replacement level of 2.1 children.
The Importance of Fertility in Population Policy
Population and its future are considered important topics in policy-making and planning. Accordingly, following the publication of the results of the 1395 census, the total population forecast for the country until the horizon of 1430 and the population of provinces until 1415 has been put on the agenda. In this forecast, fertility, alongside other demographic components, plays a significant role in determining the future population path.
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The total fertility rate of the country has decreased from 2.09 children in 1396 to 2.07 in 1397, 1.97 in 1398, 1.76 in 1399, and 1.74 in 1400. This decline in fertility becomes more significant when placed alongside population forecasting scenarios.
Fertility Forecasting Scenarios
This report presents four scenarios for future fertility: a decrease in the fertility rate to 1.9 children by 1403 and a continued decline to 1.6 children as a likely scenario, stabilization of fertility at 1.7 children, a decline to 1.3 children as a pessimistic scenario, and an increase in fertility to the replacement level of 2.1 children as an optimistic scenario.
These scenarios indicate that the future population is dependent on the fertility path, and it is not possible to consider only one definitive trend for the coming years. The observed trend from 1396 to 1400, namely the decline in fertility from 2.09 to 1.74, is significant in determining the range of these scenarios.
According to forecasts, the total population of the country in 1400 is estimated to be about 83 million and 632 thousand people, and it is predicted to be about 92 million and 300 thousand people by 1430. Additionally, in the scenario of a fertility rate of 1.3 children, the total population of the country in 1400 is estimated to be about 82 million and 900 thousand people.
Overall, the data from the years 1396 to 1400 shows a clear downward trend in the total fertility rate. Forecasts until the horizon of 1430 consider several different paths for the continuation of this trend, including a decline in fertility to 1.3 children, stabilization around 1.7 children, gradual decline to 1.6 children, and an increase to the replacement level of 2.1 children.
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