Mohammed bin Salman, the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, is facing serious challenges in the realm of politics and national security. His requests for help from Donald Trump have hit a dead end, and the U.S. currently has no inclination to engage in new conflict fronts. Meanwhile, bin Salman is confronted with a scenario that analysts call the 'worst possible scenario.'
Strategic Shock in Saudi Arabia
Analysts at The New York Times have described the current situation in Saudi Arabia as a 'strategic shock.' The rapid advance of the Yemenis late last week has been such that Western media have dubbed it a 'lightning advance.' Yemen has now gained greater control over the vital Bab al-Mandab strait, creating a serious crisis for Saudi Arabia, which had pinned its hopes on oil exports through the Red Sea.
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With the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia had relied on oil exports from the Red Sea, but now that hope is also fading. Riyadh faces few options to counter Yemen, and this has significantly increased economic pressures on the country. Additionally, Yemeni attacks on Saudi military bases and oil pipelines have become highly threatening.
Disappointment with U.S. Support
The U.S., which is itself one of the major factors of instability in the West Asian region, has once again shown that it is not a reliable ally. Bin Salman, who had spent billions to gain Washington's support, is now faced with a big 'no' from Trump. Michael Ratney, the former U.S. ambassador to Saudi Arabia, has acknowledged that the Saudis are truly frustrated, and this situation is extremely disappointing for them.
The Yemeni armed forces have targeted various objectives in response to Saudi attacks on their territory, leading to the shutdown of part of Saudi Arabia's oil pipelines. Given that this pipeline had become an alternative export route, its closure puts more pressure on Riyadh, and repairs are expected to take more than a month.
Saudi Arabia's Limited Options
Currently, bin Salman is seeking international support for military action against the Yemenis. He has traveled to Cairo in hopes of garnering support from other countries. However, experts believe that the best path for him is 'diplomacy.' Barbara Leaf, an assistant to the Secretary of State in the Biden administration, has emphasized that Saudi Arabia should consult with Iran and China to control these tensions more quickly.
Ultimately, the terrifying scenario for Saudi Arabia is to find itself trapped in a conflict alone. Saudi officials have clearly stated that the Saudi king does not want to fight the Houthis alone, which reflects Saudi Arabia's previous failures in military campaigns against Yemen. Abdulrahman al-Rashed, a columnist close to the Saudi government, has emphasized that war with Yemen requires international support.
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