Brent oil, the main benchmark for oil pricing in global markets, reached around $117 on Friday, October 22, 2026. The persistence of tensions and stabilization of prices above $110 could pave the way for oil to move towards $120; however, the realization of this scenario depends on the continuation of supply disruptions and trader behavior.
Concerns Over Regional Developments
Concerns about Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia's energy infrastructure, including facilities related to Aramco, have heightened the oil market's sensitivity to regional developments. Reports about the evacuation of employees from Aramco's headquarters in Dhahran have also increased worries about the expansion of threats against Gulf energy facilities. At the same time, the shutdown of a pipeline in Libya and a reduction in production from two of the country's oil fields have added to supply concerns.
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Price Trends in the Market
On Friday, Brent rose by 1.2% to reach $114.57, while U.S. crude, West Texas Intermediate, also increased by 1.5% to $100.95. Brent is on track to record its third consecutive weekly gain, rising about 4.2% over the week. This trend indicates that geopolitical risks have once again become one of the main determinants of oil prices.
From a market perspective, breaking through the $110 level and stabilizing prices above it could set the stage for testing higher levels. If tensions continue, limited supply, and rising transportation costs persist, the $120 level could become one of the market's next targets. Moving from a price of $114.57 to $120 requires an increase of about $5.4, equivalent to nearly 4.7%.
However, this path is not certain. A reduction in regional tensions, a return of supply flows, or easing concerns about the security of oil transportation routes could lessen upward pressure on prices. Therefore, Brent's stabilization above $110, along with supply conditions and developments in the Middle East, are among the most important indicators to watch in the coming days.
The increase in prices has also affected Iranian oil. According to available data, the reference price for Iran's light oil for delivery to Northwest Europe in the latest data with a one-day delay was about $107.03 per barrel, and Iran's heavy oil was $105.13. Additionally, according to OPEC's monthly report, the average price of Iran's heavy oil in September 2026 reached $105.84; a figure that shows an increase of $24.59 compared to the average of $81.25 in August.
The rise in Iranian oil prices could enhance potential export revenue if the upward trend in the global market continues; however, the actual sale price of Iran also depends on contract conditions, transportation costs, oil quality, and export discounts.
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