Gholamhossein Karbaschi, a reformist political activist and former mayor of Tehran, expressed doubts about the effectiveness of nuclear weapons in preventing military attacks on the live program "Iran Time" on the News Network on the evening of October 14. He pointed out that nuclear weapons "if they were deterrent, we wouldn't have been able to attack Israel multiple times," criticizing this perception. The program's host responded by stating that if such weapons were not deterrent, Israel would not attack other countries with such ease.
Nuclear Weapons: Deterrence or Increased Danger
The recent attacks by the U.S. and Israel on Iran have once again raised the question in political and expert circles of whether acquiring nuclear weapons can prevent future wars or, conversely, expose Iran to more conflicts. Proponents of building nuclear weapons believe that missiles and Iran's regional allies have not been able to prevent attacks, while opponents argue that developing a bomb could increase the likelihood of new attacks.
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Change in Iran's Nuclear Policy
The development of the Islamic Republic's nuclear program was previously presented as a technical achievement and a lever for negotiations with the West before the recent wars. However, after the U.S. withdrawal from the JCPOA in 2018 and the increase in enrichment levels to 60%, concerns about the ultimate goal of Iran's nuclear program have risen. The International Atomic Energy Agency also estimated that Iran's enriched uranium reserves exceeded 440 kilograms in its assessments before the attacks in June 2025.
The recent attacks on Iran's nuclear and military facilities have called into question the effectiveness of the deterrent approach and deepened disagreements within the decision-making structure of the Islamic Republic. Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, recently stated that U.S. attacks make countries consider acquiring nuclear bombs. He pointed out that when membership in international treaties does not prevent attacks, why shouldn't countries have nuclear weapons.
However, Abdolrasool Divsalar, a senior researcher at the United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research, emphasizes that acquiring nuclear weapons does not guarantee Iran's security by itself. He points to the necessity of having reliable systems for launching and command mechanisms, which Iran currently lacks.
